Should Justin Verlander be Worried After the Worst Start of his Career?

By Andrew Forthuber on Monday, May 20th 2013
Should Justin Verlander be Worried After the Worst Start of his Career?

It was business as usual for Detroit Tigers’ ace Justin Verlander up until May 16th of the 2013 season, when he took the mound in Arlington against the Texas Rangers.  On that Thursday, Verlander recorded the worst start of his career to date.  He lasted only 2.2 innings while giving up eight earned runs and only facing 16 total batters.  Before the tumultuous start, Verlander had compiled a solid 1.93 earned run average.  However, after the worst start of his career, his ERA rose to 3.17. 

So is there anything wrong with Goochland, Virginia native Justin Verlander, or is it just a bump in the road to another year of greatness?  If you’ve followed his career like I have, as a fellow central Virginia native, you’ll know that even “The Monarch Missile” (in reference to his college career as an Old Dominion Monarch) can have an off day on the hill.  However, it is very unlike him to have two consecutive unproductive starts.  In the start prior to the May 16th anomaly, Verlander lasted only five innings while giving up three runs and walking a season high five batters. 

While it may be uncharacteristic for Verlander to have back-to-back bad starts, it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility.  If baseball was played with a pencil and piece of paper, Verlander would most likely win the Cy Young Award every year; but it isn’t which is why he still has to make about 35 starts per year.  With that amount of starts, there are bound to be several which he, and Tigers’ fans alike, would like to have back.  Statistically speaking, Verlander’s fastball velocity is down this year, sinking from an average of 93.8 miles per hour in 2012 to 91.9 miles per hour so far this season; a decrease of 1.9 miles per hour. 

I don’t think this statistical decrease in his fastball velocity will be a problem this year or in any years to come.  As an easy comparison, look at long time Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves great, Greg Maddux.  In his prime, Maddux’s fastball rarely exceeded 90 miles per hour, yet he was able to compile countless great seasons, including four straight Cy Young Awards from 1992-1995.  Now, I’m not directly comparing the two, but just because Verlander’s velocity is down just a bit doesn’t mean his pitches aren’t working like he wants them to.  His fastball still has great movement, his changeup is still a devastating change of pace, and his hard slider is still a great groundball out pitch. 

Should Verlander be worried?  Without a doubt in my mind, the answer is no.  This young man is a freak, phenom, prodigy, franchise player, and any other adjectives you can throw at him.  Although there are several pitchers who have gotten off to better starts than Verlander this season, don’t be surprised to see him make a push for the American League Cy Young Award winner.  He’s got a long way to go, but if anyone has the mental fortitude, run support, and athletic capability to bounce back after the worst start of his career, it’s Justin Verlander.  Besides, it never hurts to have Triple Crown threat Miguel Cabrera on your side.

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