Last week I wrote about which MLB teams are off to a surprisingly hot start that might not be able to keep it up through the summer. This week I will look at some of those hot teams and see who will be real contenders in the playoffs, and which teams are just pretenders.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox were a popular pick for dead last in the AL East this pre-season. With questions about the lineup, the rotation, and the bullpen, not to mention the injury concerns, it was tough to pick them to finish near the top of one of the toughest divisions in baseball. Mike Napoli has been a huge addition to the lineup after some major injury concerns that caused the Red Sox to restructure his three-year $39 million contract to a one-year $5 million deal. Napoli seems to be coming up huge in big spots with a ton of clutch RBIs in his first few months in Boston, and has accumulated 33 RBIs already, good for top five in the American League. Daniel Nava has been the most surprising offensive player on the team, and has put up a nice line of statistics so far with five homeruns, 24 RBI, and a near .400 on-base percentage. Not a bad start of the year at all for a 30-year old journeyman whose career has included a stint in the Independent League. Perhaps the most obvious reason for the Red Sox success this season isn’t their offense, even though they rank in the top five in many offensive categories, but their excellent bullpen. The combination of Andrew Bailey, Clayton Mortensen, Junichi Tazawa, and Koji Uehara have been near impossible to reach first base against, with all of them having a WHIP under or slightly above 1.00. All of those relievers besides Mortensen are also averaging well over a strikeout per inning pitched. With their excellent bullpen, surprisingly helpful additions, and the fact that many of their stars including David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester all living up to their all-start capabilities, the Red Sox are a serious threat to make a deep postseason run this year.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are off to an unexpected start similar to the Red Sox, but I’m not as sold on their postseason aspirations as I am with Boston so far. The Rockies are putting up some serious power numbers, which is natural for the best hitting park in all of baseball, but their home/road splits suggest that a lot of their power hitters are putting them over the fence both at home and away. Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are living up to their potential MVP form, and Dexter Fowler is putting up all-star numbers as well. Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin are anchoring the starting rotation, both off to solid starts, which is remarkably unusual for pitchers at Coors Field. The Rockies relievers are having a great start to the year similar to the Red Sox, which is helping them stay near the top of the NL West. I am not as optimistic about the Rockies because I don’t think they have the lineup strength from their infielders outside of Tulowitzki, and the back end of their starting rotation is pretty shaky. I look for the Rockies to finish four to eight games outside of the second wild card spot to end the season.
Baltimore Orioles
Does it count as surprising if the Orioles won over 90 games last season and were picked by many analysts to win the division this year? I think it does, because many analysts chalked their last season up as a fluke due to their low run differential. Last season they got into the playoffs by miraculously winning every close game in the late summer. This season they are winning their close games, but they are beating on some teams with some serious power as well. Many of the Orioles superstars weren’t household names before this season, which may be why it still feels like the Orioles are a bit of a surprise team. The April American League Player of the Month Chris Davis might be the best player in baseball so far this season. Davis has always had all-star potential and big time power, but only started living up to that potential and power last season. Davis leads the league in homeruns with 11 homeruns and trails only Miguel Cabrera with 37 RBI. Manny Machado is off to a great start in his second year, and is a legitimate five-tool player. I got a chance to see him play with the AA Bowie Baysox last year, and he immediately reminded me of a young Alex Rodriguez. Machado will be a superstar in the near future and will be a big part of the team’s success this year. The Orioles have one of the best young lineups in baseball with Davis, Machado, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Wieters, and one of the deepest pitching staffs as well. I look for the Orioles to win the wild card game again this year, and make a push to go deeper in the playoffs this season.