Somewhere between the philosophies of "it's never too late" and "wait until next year" lie the stories of the following ten players, all of whom disappointed early in the season despite lofty preseason expectations. Regardless of their team's position in the standings, a late-season hot streak can lay to rest any doubts that may have arisen earlier and prime players for a higher fantasy value heading into 2014. In the case of a few on this list, success is likely to be limited to the end of this season, but for others, it could be an indication of better - or even great - things to come next season.
Cole Hamels, Starting Pitcher, Philadelphia Phillies
We had to expect that Hamels would eventually snap back to his career tendencies, especially knowing that the velocity and movement on his pitches hadn’t deviated from his norm. The 29-year-old lefty carried an ERA of nearly 4.50 into the All-Star break, largely due to an increased in walks, though he took some tough-luck losses on games when the Phillies offense could not support his quality efforts. With the team buried in the standings, Hamels’ late-season resurgence - a 2.38 ERA in 10 starts after the All-Star Break - has come under the radar. Lost perhaps in a disappointing first half is the fact that workhorse Hamels has pitched five innings or more in every appearance he’s made in 2013, finishing the seventh or beyond in 17.
Brett Lawrie, Third Base, Toronto Blue Jays
Lawrie, with his maximum-intensity style of play, has never gone about things quietly. The 23-year-old entered the season as a breakout pick for a big 2013, however, a .209 average and .238 on-base percentage through the end of May had fantasy owners crying “drop” and experts questioning whether or not he was big league-ready. Perhaps it was an ankle injury causing him to miss 41 games that was the catalyst in turning his season around. Since his return from the DL on July 13, Lawrie’s average has risen from .203 to .257 and he has cut his strikeout rate tremendously. His power potential remains a bit of a tease, but regardless, his second-half performance should have him back on the lists of fantasy players expected to have career seasons in 2014.
Yovani Gallardo, Starting Pitcher, Milwaukee Brewers
Eliminated in both the division and Wild Card races, Gallardo’s late-season rebound has certainly been a case of “too little, too late” for the Brewers. Still, after returning from a hamstring injury in mid-August, the ace surged in the stretch run to bring his numbers back up to respectability. With three starts remaining, Gallardo has the chance to bring his season ERA - at 4.91 before he went on the disabled list July 31 - below four. His strikeout prowess, while not quite back to over one whiff per inning status, is returning to form. The Brewers have reason for optimism in the fate of their number one next season, and fantasy owners could find a gem down in the ranks come 2014 draft day.
Will Venable, Outfield, San Diego Padres
Would Venable be in the mention as a top fantasy outfielder right now were it not for a .367/.395/.697 August for the ages in which he hit eight home runs and 15 runs batted in? Probably not. But the 30-year-old has caught fire in the late months, leading to career bests across the board. Formerly known as a low-OBP guy with strong platoon splits playing his home games in an extreme pitcher’s park, Venable is making his case as a power and speed outfielder in the season’s final weeks. Should fantasy owners be skeptical about his ability to be a .275 hitter with 20+ home run potential next season? Probably. But for now, when it comes to the hottest hitter in San Diego, it’s best to keep riding the wave.
Huston Street, Relief Pitcher, San Diego Padres
Sure, Street is a proven closer with a safe job who will be a saves contributor if he’s healthy. Still, no right-thinking fantasy owner felt confident in his ability to shut down opposing offenses in the ninth inning. In eight of his first nine appearances, Street allowed at least one runner to reach base, and saw his ERA become bloated by a few bad outings early on. In the second half, however, Street’s innings have been cleaner and his numbers have reflected it. Since the beginning of July, he has saved 14 games, thanks to a miniscule 0.40 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 22.1 innings. His overall strikeout numbers are down, but recent success proves that his ability for a big whiff is still there.
Martin Prado, Second Base/Third Base/Outfield, Arizona Diamondbacks
In his career with the Braves, Prado rose from super-utility fill-in to fantasy commodity, noted for his consistently high batting average and perhaps most importantly, his eligibility at many positions. Aside from a blip in 2011, when he suffered through a staph infection in his leg, Prado hit over .300 in four seasons as an everyday player in Atlanta. As a major piece in the offseason Justin Upton deal, Prado’s success was expected to carry over in Arizona, but his batting average hovered around .250 up to the All-Star break. Since then, however, he has picked up to his usual pace with a .342/.390/.519 line in the second half. His overall RBI total is at 73, a career best for Prado, his power numbers are in line with the best he’s put up, and he’ll never kill you with strikeouts, as he has whiffed only 48 times in 543 at-bats.
Danny Farquhar, Relief Pitcher, Seattle Mariners
Longtime minor leaguer Farquhar doesn’t quite fit the bill as an early fantasy disappointment, mostly because nobody outside of Seattle had considered - or even heard of him in the first half. His overall numbers - 13 saves and a 4.71 ERA in 40 appearances - belie the dominance he has experienced since being named closer of the Mariners. Farquhar has 73 strikeouts in 49.2 innings, an incredible 13.2 K/9 rate that rivals the likes of Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman. Walks have been a bugaboo for the 26-year-old, but he has undergone a transformation in his mechanics from a sidearm angle to a over-the-top delivery, which would suggest that there is still a learning curve. His minor league 8.9 K/9 rate suggests that while Farquhar’s numbers may regress somewhat, if he can harness his control, we may be hearing his unique name in Seattle for years to come.
Victor Martinez, Catcher/First Base, Detroit Tigers
It would be unfair to expect Martinez, one year removed from an ACL injury that ended his season before it started, to immediately return to the level that made him a perennial .300 average, 25-homer, 100-RBI threat. Still, when the 34-year-old opened the season with a .232/.290/.337 line through the end of June, the possibility that age, injury and natural decline had caught up with him seemed quite real. Martinez, however, hit .390 in July and .386 in August, bringing his season totals - .296 BA, 12 HR, 73 RBI - back up to par. While his fantasy value has likely been boosted by his eligibility at catcher - a position that he seems to have left behind for good - there is good reason to believe that Martinez is fully recovered and back to the hitter he was.
Dustin Ackley, First Base/Second Base/Outfield, Seattle Mariners
Ackley’s 2012 season, while far from perfect, gave fantasy owners hope on draft day that the 24-year-old could blossom into a respectable hitter with moderate power and speed. The 2009 first-round draft pick had a difficult time keeping his average over the Mendoza line in early 2013, however, and found himself back at Triple-A Tacoma in June to work on his offense. His immediate return from demotion was uninspiring until August, when Ackley got hot - uncharacteristically so. In the month of August, Ackley put up a .390/.420/.597 line in 77 at-bats, however his numbers were inflated by an unsustainable .459 BABIP and strikeout and walk rates that were similar to his career figures. Ackley certainly improved his fantasy value with a late-season rebound, but owners should beware that this success will most likely not stick around.
Jarrod Parker, Starting Pitcher, Oakland Athletics
Parker’s early 2013 wasn’t entirely a wash, but his inconsistency and penchant for allowing a “big inning” soon grew old with fantasy owners. Entering the month of July, Parker had a 6-6 record and a 4.11 ERA, walking batters at nearly a 3.5 BB/9 rate. Since then, the 24-year-old has spotted his four-seam fastball, trusted his sinker and cut his walks significantly. Parker appeared on course for a demotion early on, and many questioned whether he was actually pitching with an injury. Now, his season totals - 11-6 with a 3.57 ERA and only 152 hits allowed in 176.1 innings pitched - are those of a solid back-of-the-rotation fantasy starting pitcher.