On Monday, free-agent pitcher Kyle Lohse finally landed a new home, just one week before the start of baseball’s regular season. He’s signed a three-year contract with the Milwaukee Brewers that will pay him $33M and includes $1M in incentive bonuses.
Lohse, 34, had a career year in 2012 with the rival St. Louis Cardinals. He posted a 16-win, 3-loss record, with an impressive 2.86 ERA. Some of his advanced peripherals indicate there’s room for a fair amount of regression moving forward, as he was lucky to sustain a well-below average opposing hitter BABIP (.269) and an unusually high strand rate (77% hitters left on base). However, the short of it is that he’s accumulated 30 wins against 11 losses in 2011 and 2012 with a 1.12 WHIP. He’s made himself into a good starting pitcher.
As a reward for these great results, Lohse was deemed a Tier One free agent, and any team signing him would be required to give up their upcoming first-round draft pick, and the associated signing money in the spring’s amatuer draft. Between his demands for a three-year $45M contract, and his Tier One status, teams roundly rejected Lohse’s demands and he was left unsigned until Monday.
As was previously discussed, the Milwaukee Brewers made for a logical landing spot for Lohse. Despite operating in baseball’s smallest captive market, the Brewers seems to have an unwritten contract with their fans, one where they actively try to field the best club possible, in return for strong fan attendance. The club drew 2.8M fans in 2012 and with a reasonable payroll, had the room to make a much needed addition to their pitching staff.
Lohse will slot in behind de-facto ace Yovani Gallardo as the club’s number two starter. He’ll be followed by the likes of Marco Estrada, Chris Narveson, and Mike Fiers. It’s a young rotation and one that will greatly benefit from Lohse’s ability to soak up 200 innings, consistently deliver strikes, and suppresses opposing home runs. Fangraphs recently ranked the Brewers pitching staff as #25 in baseball, so Lohse’s addition, and the bumping down of all remaining pitchers will surely improve their standing. The Brewers will pay Lohse to be a two WAR pitcher (think Jeremy Guthrie), which he’s likely to exceed, so there’s good value here. Lohse is an efficient pitcher, delivering a first-pitch strike 68% of at bats. There’s no reason to expect drastic changes in his performance, as he’ll stay in the same division and face the same NL Central lineups for the next three years.
Lohse’s addition stands as a reminder that the NL Central does not stand as a two-team race between the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals. The Brewers have a strong core of position players, centred around Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Aramis Ramirez, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez. Lohse and Gallardo front the rotation, and will hope for strong sophomore seasons from Estrada, Narveson and Fiers to compete for a 2013 playoff berth.