Two Games In: Lessons from the NL Playoffs
We’ve played two games in each of the National League Divisional Series (NLDS). The St. Louis Cardinals have split their two home games and now head to Washington for a best of three against the Nationals. The San Francisco Giants didn't take advantage of their two home games, and must head to Cincinnati with the monumental task of winning three in a row against the Reds.
We’ll reflect back on the two games in each of these series, looking for some lessons learned that can portend to predictions for the remainder of the NLDS.
San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds
1. Surprisingly, the Giants offense looks flat. San Francisco’s offense was the NL’s best in the 2012 second half (5.2 runs per game through August and September), yet has been non-existent through the first two NLDS games. Two games at home, each offering their own opportunities, with Jonny Cueto’s injury in Game One, then facing junk-baller Bronson Arroyo in the 2nd game, were squandered. They’re down 2-0 and must sweep three games in Cincinnati.
They’ll really need Buster Posey and crew to step up with their bats in Cincinnati. They’ll be facing Home Bailey as he comes off a no-hitter in Pittsburgh, and (likely) Johnny Cueto, recovered from his game one back spasms. That’s a daunting one-two to face, while the Reds can feast on Giants’ struggling Ryan Vogelsong (5.34 ERA in September) and Barry Zito.
Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park is a polar opposite of the Giant’s AT&T Park – it is an offensive bandbox. You can expect to see increased offense from the Giants, but they’ll need to hit the Reds early and often, as the Reds late-inning relievers (Sean Marshall, Jonathan Broxton and Aroldis Chapman) present a formidable combination with their killer swing-and-miss stuff.
2. Cincinnati’s Bid Red Machine looks ready to roll - on the backs of strong pitching. The Reds were built around key offensive players Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Ludwick and Jay Bruce. Yet they look like a lock to advance to the NLCS through the strength of their starting and relief pitching.
The Reds’ starting pitching is in top form, with Mat Latos admirably filling in for Johnny Cueto after his game one injury. Home Bailey’s late-season surge (1.85 ERA in 48 September innings) strengthens the back-end of the rotation. If Cueto can return healthy, Cincinnati will feature starting pitching quality they haven’t experienced since their World Series run in the early 1990s.
Their bullpen further solidifies the team for a long playoff run. Their late game relievers all have swing and miss stuff (Marshall 10.9 K/9; Broxton 6.45 K/9; Chapman 15.3 K/9), which effectively shortens games to a six of seven inning affair when the Reds have a lead. There’s just too many weapons in this bullpen for the Giants to mount any sustained late-game attack.
Prediction: The Giants will squeeze a Game Three victory in Cincinnati, but this series will not go longer than four games. The Reds will advance to the NLCS.
St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals
1. Washington should be considered underdogs - at this point. Washington must be happy to have split their two games in St. Louis. They stole game one, thanks to Davey Johnson’s clear out-managing of Mike Matheny in the 8th inning, and were completely outplayed in the Cardinals’ Game Two 12-4 rout.
While they head home to Washington, they no longer own a pitching advantage for Games Three (Carpenter vs Jackson), Four (Lohse vs. Detweiler) and Five (Wainwright vs. Zimmerman). St. Louis has great pitching depth at the back of their rotation, while their high-octane offense will be ready to feast on the likes of Jackson and Detweiller. There’s a big dropoff between the pitching quality at the start and back end of the Nationals’ rotation.
Further, Jordan Zimmerman’s torching in the NLDS Game Two does not bode well for his start in a potential game five. September was his worst month of '12, and he may be tiring as he’s reached a career-high inning count. Meanwhile, Cardinals’ co-aces Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright seem to be back at the peak of their game; Wainwright’s Game Two FIP score was the third best of his career, while Carpenter has finally returned from injury to post a 3.71 September ERA.
2. Carlos Beltran is back on track. Beltran was tagged as the key replacement in the wake of Albert Pujols’ departure to the Angels. The seasoned slugger was red-hot for the 2012 first half, but slumped through inconsistent play and nagging injuries for much of the second half.
Beltran returned to form in September (.849 September OPS) and looks red-hot in the NLDS. He hit two home runs in Game Two, one being a mammoth 488 foot shotto left field. With Lance Berkman’s season-ending injury, Beltran’s resurgence will be a critical component of any Cardinals’ playoff advance.
Beltran has keyed many teams’ playoff runs and he looks to be back in his peak form. He looks primed to deliver in the NL playoffs once again.
Prediction: Washington will be hard pressed to contain St. Louis’ potent offense. St. Louis will advance to the NLCS to face off against NL Central foe Cincinnati.