The only thing that’s possibly longer than the actual fantasy baseball season is the months of draft preparation that lead up to it.
Everyone from fantasy experts to the novice owner have his/her own idea of who should go No. 1 overall in the draft and who should be avoided at all costs. However, it wouldn’t be fantasy baseball without a couple of botched predictions, which is what makes this game so unpredictable.
These are the players the experts were dead-on about, and who is turning out to be a big disappointment.
Correct
Mike Trout - Essentially the consensus No. 1 overall pick heading into this year, Mike Trout has more than lived up to his expectations in his sophomore year with the Los Angeles Angels. Trout is hitting .293 and has scored 42 runs this season, and is essentially the only source of offense on an otherwise struggling Angels team. If his teammates Albert Pujols and Co. were playing any better, there’s no telling how great Trout’s numbers would be this year.
Miguel Cabrera - It would be pretty hard to blow a prediction on Cabrera, but once again Cabrera has performed almost as well, if not better, than most people expected him to. Miggy is currently third in the league in homers and first in RBI, as he continues to hold the title of the best hitter in baseball.
Carlos Gonzalez - Like Trout and Cabrera, messing up a prediction on Gonzalez would be pretty hard. CarGo was eighth in Yahoo!’s preseason rankings, and has since moved up to third en route to hitting .304 along with driving in 42 runs on 14 homeruns. While he isn’t one of the “big names” in baseball, Gonzalez is certainly a top hitter and proves that he should be at the top of everyone’s rankings year-in and year-out.
Clayton Kershaw - After being ranked by Fox Sports as the No. 2 starting pitcher heading into this season, and being the second pitcher drafted in Sports Illustrated’s expert mock draft, Kershaw is once again in the running for the National League Cy Young Award. Kershaw’s wins are down with only five, but that is more a sign of poor play by the rest of his team than Kershaw, considering he currently holds a 1.93 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. The 25-year-old is also tied for fifth in the majors in strikeouts, proving that the win total doesn’t tell the whole story.
Wrong
Chris Davis - Sure most fantasy experts didn’t have Davis in their top 10, but then again, how could you have predicted the season Davis would be having? Currently second in ESPN’s fantasy rankings after only being ranked at 121 by Yahoo!, Davis is having a career season in his seventh year in the league. Davis leads the league in slugging percentage, OPS and homeruns, and is the main reason why the Baltimore Orioles are 34-26 and fighting for the top spot in the American League Eastern Division.
Matt Kemp - Entering his eighth year in the majors, experts expected Kemp to do a little too much to live up to the expectations after the past three years he’s had. Kemp was ranked fifth overall by Yahoo! this offseason and he was taken at No. 8 in the Fox Sports expert draft. However, Kemp has really struggled this season, most recently making a trip to the DL with a hamstring injury. Even in the 51 games that he has played, Kemp has been very disappointing, and is on track to only hit .251, which would be .40 points below his career average. Kemp is also projected to be below his career averages in slugging percentage and OPS.
Ryan Braun - Steroid allegations aside, Braun has not played nearly well enough this season to prove the was worthy of the No. 3 offseason rank he was given by Yahoo! and the No. 3 pick he received in the SI draft. Braun currently ranks 66th among all players in Yahoo! leagues as he only has nine homeruns and four stolen bases after he traditionally balanced power and speed on the bases. Braun may be allowing these recent allegations to get to his head this season, but either way, his numbers are way down and if he keeps this up he won’t be anywhere near the No. 3 pick come next year’s draft.
Clay Buchholz - Anyone who told Buchholz heading into this season that his best years were behind him have been proven wrong so far this year, and Buchholz is on track to have one of the best seasons of his career. After posting a 4.56 ERA last season, experts were way down on Buchholz, who struggled in 2011 and 2012 after finishing 17-7 in 2010. Buchholz now leads the league in ERA (1.62) and wins (8) after he was ranked 241st overall in the offseason by Yahoo! and not even breaking the top 50 ranking in Fox Sports pitchers.