When it comes to drafting a small forward for your fantasy team, you must use a top pick to get someone from this group. After the top ten players at this position, there is a noticeable drop off in terms of fantasy value. If you get the chance and can use the first or even second overall selection take either Lebron James or Kevin Durant.
The production out of this group of players is not based on potential or up-side. No, this group of small forwards will give you consistent numbers game in and game out. To put it bluntly if your fantasy team lacks anyone of these players you will be playing catch-up all season long to your fellow GM’s.
Here are the Edraft rankings for small forwards 1-10:
1- Lebron James – Miami Heat
I don’t think you could go wrong with either Lebron James of Kevin Durant with the top selection. Personally, I give James a slight edge for the time being. The assist numbers are what sets James apart, aside from averaging 27.1 ppg and 7.9 rpg; James chipped in with 6.2 apg. I’d like to see an increase in the free throw attempts per game as that is an indicator of aggressive get-to-the-basket play. Thing about James is that he could legitimately average a triple double if he was willing to sacrifice some scoring. I’m not suggesting he do that, but many leagues have fantasy point kickers for triple doubles. I would look at taking LBJ as the first player off the board in every league.
2- Kevin Durant – Oklahoma City Thunder
The ranking of Durant second is really my personal preference. There is no question that the top two picks are interchangeable, so draft on preference. Durant does shoot the ball consistently better than Lebron, and he does take more and make more three pointers than Lebron. Durant is not as productive in the assist category, but that just isn’t his role on the Thunder squad. I think that where Durant and Lebron separate a bit is the ability to be the explosive scorer. Durant can go off for 40 or 50 points in a game, whereas James will get his points then defer to teammates for the assists.
3- Carmelo Anthony – NY Knicks
We should see a bounce-back season out of Carmelo Anthony. The offensive struggles brought on by now fired Mike D’Antoni and the traded Jeremy Lin are a fading memory. Head Coach Mike Woodson seems content to let Carmelo and Amare Stoudemire be the offensive catalysts. This is good for Anthony’s fantasy value as he should see the ball in better scoring opportunities. Downfall to Anthony’s game is the vast majority of his buckets come in isolation play, which can wear a player down. Fatigue and injury are concerns for Anthony, as he has missed time in every season he has played. Look for the averages to creep back up to about 25.5 ppg, 3.5 apg and 6.5 rpg.
4- Paul Pierce – Boston Celtics
An extremely steady and reliable pick here, as Paul Pierce doesn’t miss games and produces with great consistency. Keep in mind that Pierce turns 35 this year, and does have a fair bit of mileage on his body. Offensively he should get you his normal average of 19 ppg, 4 apg and 5 rpg. Similarly to Tim Duncan’s situation, Doc Rivers is likely going to find ways to get Pierce rest throughout the season. That might be off-nights or limited minutes in blowout games. I think too that the emergence of Rajon Rondo will dampen Pierce’s fantasy value somewhat.
5- Andre Iguodala – Denver Nuggets
Hopefully the change of scenery for Iguodala will serve him well. The previous four seasons have seen a decrease in scoring average and hopefully the change of teams will help this problem. In Denver, Iguodala should see more scoring opportunities and thus the scoring average should increase. A very versatile player who gets you solid rebounding and assist totals; once those scoring numbers come back up then Iguodala is an extremely valuable fantasy asset.
6- Luol Deng – Chicago Bulls
Last season saw Deng’s production suffer due to his wrist injury. He postponed surgery and then played in the Olympics. Reports now indicate that Deng has decided to forgo surgery altogether. This is good news for Bulls fans and fantasy GM’s. I think that a return to health and the absence of Derrick Rose will all contribute to a bounce-back season for Deng. Expect his averages to climb back up to around 17.5 ppg, 6 rpg and 3 apg.
7- Rudy Gay – Memphis Grizzlies
Drafting a sure thing can be rewarding for fantasy GM’s and Rudy Gay has been the model of consistency for the past five years. Very reliable stat performer, averaging around 19 ppg, 6 rpg and 1.8 apg. The downfall for me when it comes to drafting Gay is that he is too consistent. He just doesn’t out-perform his averages. Last season Gay did not once exceed 30 points in a game. If you are looking for a sure thing, a player you draft, play every day and just forget about it; then Gay is the guy. I like to draft the consistent player as well; however, I look for one with the potential to have the huge game and garner those valuable additional fantasy points.
8- Nicolas Batum – Portland Trailblazers
Recently inked to a fat new contract, Nicolas Batum will have some large expectations entering this season. While it is unlikely that Batum plays up to his contract this season, he remains an integral part of the Blazer’s future. A lot of folks have the misconception that last season was a breakout year for Batum. This just isn’t true as it has now been consecutive years that Batum has produced solid numbers across the board. There really isn’t as much risk to this guy as people are trying to sell. Last season, Batum only scored 20 or more points in a game on nine occasions. This season Batum will see more offensive schemes for him and will be called upon to be that second scoring option behind LaMarcus Aldridge. For Batum to really be a top tier small forward and not just get paid like one; he must improve on his rebounding and passing.
9- Danny Granger – Indiana Pacers
This not so sharp-shooting small forward will likely see his scoring come down this season as Paul George looks to be more involved offensively. The other concern in drafting Granger is his frequent injuries. I also see the emergence of Roy Hibbert on this team as a hindrance to Granger’s value. Still a descent pick for a small forward; I just don’t envision Granger equalling his last year’s averages of 18.7 ppg, 1.8 apg and 5.0 rpg.
10- Gerald Wallace – Brooklyn Nets
This eleven year NBA veteran is very versatile player who can grab you fantasy points in all statistical categories. Wallace will be looking to fit into the revamped Brooklyn Nets roster and will no longer be looked upon as the primary nor even secondary scoring option. This is actually a good thing for Wallace’s fantasy value, as he is not at his best when he must carry a large offensive load. Wallace’s true value lies in the steals and rebounds he gets while playing tough defense and crashing the boards. Given the balance on the Nets roster, expect Wallace’s scoring averages to decrease. I’d expect the rebounding and assist totals to hold constant and maybe even see a slight bump over last year.