Well we are only a few days into the free agent period and although team signings cannot be official until July 10th, it hasn’t stopped teams from reaching agreements with new acquisitions. So far we have seen some of the supporting cast free agents come to terms with new teams. The likes of Darren Collison, Patty Mills, Avery Bradley, Shaun Livingston and Thabo Sefolosha have all agreed to new contracts.
A small group of free agents who can be classified as being part of the second tier of free agents have also started to agree to terms. Marcin Gortat, Kyle Lowry and Dirk Nowitzki have all re-upped with their original teams.
These player agreements have served as nothing more than appetizers for what should be a delicious main course of free agent signings. The entire NBA, including general managers and players are waiting on the big announcements that are going to be coming from superstar players like LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony and Pau Gasol.
With so many big name free agents on the market it has actually paralyzed the signing process rather than expediting it. Given the structure of the NBA today and the punitive luxury tax system; it has created a system where high profile players hit free agency at the same time.
Every team that has the salary cap room and even those who don’t, are coveting these superstars. Few teams have legitimate shots at landing one of these super studs but till the players have officially signed elsewhere, the dreams will live on.
The entire signing process is really hinging on two players and their future career decisions. Both Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony are handcuffing the entire process as teams are basically holding pat with their salary cap space in case James or Anthony's agents come a calling.
Once James and or Anthony officially commit to a team, the free agent dominoes will start falling. A signing of either will kick off a frenzied arms race among teams to quickly reach out to the best of the rest left on the open market.
Anthony has officially wrapped up his 'love me tour' and he is rumored to have at least two max-dollar deals on the table to consider. James on the other hand is playing it low key and is preferring to let his agents conduct preliminary meetings with a few chosen teams.
As much as these two guys are dominating the news, one player who is flying under the free agent radar is poised to have an equally big impact on the market. Chris Bosh could kick this party off if he were to come to terms with a team other than the Miami Heat. If we were to speculate that the Houston Rockets don't like their chances after all in landing Anthony and they reach out to Bosh with a four-year $60 million deal then the repercussions could be immense.
Anthony would then be down to choosing between the New York Knicks and the Chicago Bulls. Either way that goes, Chicago will be using their amnesty provision on Carlos Boozer to either make room for Anthony or to make room for Lance Stephenson.
Miami would now have money and a need at forward and this is where they could find a pretty motivated and slightly ticked off Boozer. Boozer can't stretch the floor like Bosh can but he would bring some much needed toughness to the roster as well as a legitimate post threat.
If I am Pat Riley I would actually be hoping for this scenario as I wouldn't want to pay Bosh that kind of money. Paying Wade is an inevitability as his deal could almost be classified as a legacy contract, one that is market value for the next couple years but overpays in the last two seasons.
As much influence Anthony will have on how the rest of the free agent period goes, perhaps the most significant domino that could fall belongs to Bosh. Speculation continues that he will simply resign in Miami for around $10 million per year. If this does happen it will simply be out of Bosh's kindness as this is well below his market value.
Certainly Bosh knows that he is going to be taking a pay cut on his next deal but for him to take such a loss is a bit far fetched. Bosh knows that he is never going to be a revered member of the Miami Heat fraternity, certainly not on the same level as James or Wade. He got his two rings and now it is time to get paid.
Houston would love to have Bosh as they could really use a stretch four option to complement Dwight Howard in the post and if they can come to Bosh with a deal that starts at $15 million per year it will be near impossible for Bosh to turn it down.
Similarly the Phoenix Suns could use a replacement for the soon to be departed Channing Frye. Bosh would fill that position nicely while giving a solid upgrade on the defensive end. Dallas could also be in the running here as they may try to lure Bosh back home. The Lakers could be a dark horse in the Bosh sweepstakes too could use and afford him.
Despite keeping a low profile this far, Bosh is the real wildcard here during the infancy period of free agency. If he signs with a team other than the Heat then it will signify the start of the frenzy as big name players will start to ink deals one after another.