The time is here! After a long, exciting season filled with surprises, twists and turns, the playoffs have finally arrived. With it comes the anticipation of crowning a new (or old?) champion, upsets, breakout performers and choking under pressure. Predicting any playoff series is a difficult task, and if anyone claims to know all the answers, they are either lying or are a psychic. I claim to be neither of those things, but I’m going to offer my educated guesses (predictions) anyway. Let’s take a look at the matchups of the first round, and see who has the best chances of moving on.
Eastern Conference
Atlanta Hawks (1) vs. Brooklyn Nets (8)
This series features the runaway leaders of the Eastern conference and a team that snuck into the playoffs on the last game of the season. The Nets had some good fortune when the Spurs lost, which meant the Grizzlies could gain ground by winning, which meant they tried against and beat the Pacers, which put the Nets into the playoffs. Confused? Me too. Anyway, Atlanta has been coasting for weeks and now has to kick back into high gear with the playoffs. Lucky for them, they get a warm-up series against a Nets team that they throttled three times and squeaked out a win in the fourth matchup. Brooklyn simply can’t match up against Atlanta’s ball movement and offensive efficiency, and Atlanta is a much deeper team. The Hawks may struggle initially in the first game, but once they shake off the cobwebs they should have no problem dispatching the Nets.
Prediction: Hawks in 5
Cleveland Cavaliers (2) vs. Boston Celtics (7)
This matchup would have been far more interesting five years ago, when the LeBron James led Cavaliers would face off in epic battles with Boston’s Paul Pierce with both in or around their primes. Now, this series takes on a different feeling with the Celtics being a huge surprise entrant in the playoffs. After trading their two best players, Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green, the Celtics basically punted the rest of the season away. However, Brad Stevens willed a team of no-names and has-beens to the seven seed, a feat that cements his place as one of the best up and coming coaches in the NBA. Boston and Cleveland are the two hottest teams in the East, but Boston only beat the Cavs this year when Cleveland was resting most of their major contributors. I think LeBron goes into playoff mode and wills his inexperienced teammates through this series, but not before Boston puts a real scare into the Cavs.
Prediction: Cavaliers in 6
Chicago Bulls (3) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (6)
One of the more surprising matchups in the East features a team that has struggled to stay healthy all season against the young Bucks (pun intended) of Milwaukee. Jason Kidd did a terrific job leading a very inexperienced team through injuries (Jabari Parker, Kendall Marshall), a major contributor walking away (Larry Sanders), and the trade of the team’s best player (Brandon Knight). In response, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton have emerged as the team’s stars, but they haven’t been the same since the Knight trade. The Bulls, meanwhile, are on a roll lately now that they finally have everyone healthy again. Derrick Rose is back (KNOCK ON WOOD NBA FANS), Pau Gasol and Jimmy Butler are having career years, and the breakout star of the playoffs could be Nikola Mirotic. The Bulls are flying under the radar, but could be a real challenger in the East.
Prediction: Bulls in 5
Toronto Raptors (4) vs. Washington Wizards (5)
The last series in the East might be the most confusing series to predict. Toronto was the favorite for the first third of the season, but injuries set them back and they haven’t really been themselves since. Washington came out hot as well, but their offense is a mess now and their strengths don’t seem to be strengths anymore. Each team can pull out this series, but I think it’s going to come down to how well the backcourts play. John Wall is electric, but his jumper has disappeared. Kyle Lowry is one of the best point guards in the NBA when healthy, but that he is not. Ultimately, whichever point guard steps up will lead their team to the second round. I’m giving the edge to Toronto because their fans are more likely to swing a home court game, and the Raptors have the home court advantage.
Prediction: Raptors in 7
Western Conference
Golden State Warriors (1) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (8)
Two of the biggest surprises of the season square off against one another in this series. The Warriors were not expected to be the best team in the NBA, while the Pelicans weren’t expected to edge out the Oklahoma City Thunder for the eighth spot in the playoffs. Each team is led by an NBA superstar in Stephen Curry and Anthony Davis, but the Warriors are the clear favorites in this series. Steve Kerr should win coach of the year award, while Monty Williams defied the odds to save his job and make the playoffs. Barring anything insane, the Warriors should handle New Orleans. Quite frankly, it’s next to impossible to see any team beating Golden State four times out of seven, but crazier things have happened. They just won’t in this series.
Prediction: Warriors in 4
Houston Rockets (2) vs. Dallas Mavericks (7)
The rest of the Western conference isn’t as easy to pick as that last series. Okay, that was the understatement of the year, but you get my point. Seeds 2 through 7 all have legitimate chances of getting to the NBA finals. Houston claimed the 2 seed despite dealing with significant injuries all season. They enter the playoffs wounded yet resilient, while the Mavericks have dealt with psychological problems more than anything else. If Dirk Nowitzki can reel in his team, Rick Carlisle is the type of coach that can adjust on the fly and steal a series. He almost did last season against the eventual champs, taking the Spurs to game seven, further than any other team did. James Harden is the alpha and omega of the Rockets, who rely on the three pointer far too much to be a lock in this series. If Dwight Howard can be Dwight Howard, Houston advances. If not, things get a little trickier. I think the Rockets rebound from their first round exit last year, but not without a real fight from their in-state rivals.
Prediction: Rockets in 7
Los Angeles Clippers (3) vs. San Antonio Spurs (6)
This could very well be the series of the first round, folks. The defending champs could have locked up the second seed with a win on the last day, but slid all the way to six instead. The Clippers have been on fire since Blake Griffin returned, but the real catalyst is Chris Paul. The league’s most efficient offense squares off against its best defense. Tony Parker is finally healthy, as is Kawhi Leonard and the rest of the Spurs. It’s brains vs. brawn again, with Pop the mastermind against the overwhelming athletic advantage the Clippers have in the frontcourt. It’s so hard to predict how the Spurs will play the Clippers defensively, which is an advantage in their favor, as the Clippers won’t be able to plan for their schemes ahead of time. The home court advantage helps L.A., but San Antonio is doing that thing again where they play mediocre all year and then the light bulb turns on and they set the world on fire. I think that continues, and their depth helps carry them to the second round.
Prediction: Spurs in 6
Portland Trail Blazers (4) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (5)
Finally, the West’s version of the 4/5 matchup features its most confounding teams as well. Portland took the fourth spot by virtue of winning their division (which guarantees a top four seed), but loses the home court advantage by virtue of Memphis’ better record. Memphis was firing on all cylinders for most of the year, but injuries have bugged Mike Conley and Tony Allen to knock them down from the second seed. Portland was dealing with a thin rotation well before Wesley Matthews went down for the year, and now seem to be running on the fumes of Damian Lillard and what’s left of LaMarcus Aldridge's thumbs. The key to the series will be whether or not Allen and Conley can play up to their potential against a superstar in Lillard, who always seems to play better when it matters most. The home court advantage really hurts the Trail Blazers, and I think Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph will decide this series. However, we are in for a real treat, as two of the league’s best starting frontcourts go head to head. I think Memphis has the depth and balance to take the series, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it went the other way, given Memphis’ injury issues.
Prediction: Grizzlies in 7