Cordarrelle Patterson is widely considered the top wide receiver prospect in the 2013 NFL Draft. As a JUCO recruit from Hutchinson Community College in Kansas, he only spent one year at Tennessee, but boy was it a year. Only a small handful of human beings have his combination of size and movement skills, and that was reflected in his college performance.

He’s a triple-threat player, with explosive physical potential as a receiver, runner, and returner, as evidenced by his school-record 1,858 all-purpose yards in 2012 (nearly 155 per game). He was also the first NCAA player since 2008 with a kick return TD, a punt return TD, a receiving TD, AND a rushing TD all in the same season. He had ten total touchdowns on the season: three rushing, two return, and five receiving.

Strengths

Quickness/Speed: His athleticism is the biggest reason he’ll be drafted wherever he ends up. At 6’2” and 216 pounds, he ran a 4.33 forty-yard dash at the Combine, and nobody was surprised. He’s a former track athlete with legitimately elite speed that translate to the football field. He also has the short-area quickness to shake defenders and create space for himself. He moves like Percy Harvin, even though he’s four inches taller and 25+ pounds heavier.

Size/Strength: He has prototypical size for the position, and he possesses the strengths to box out defenders and run through tackles, though he doesn’t always use that strength. Physically, he profiles very much like Julio Jones, which is why so many people are so excited about him.

Production: As I mentioned before, he had a very productive junior year with Tennessee. He also tore up Hutchinson Community College, to the tune of 113 catches, 1,832 receiving yards, and 36 total touchdowns. The step up in competition hardly affected his rate of production, so that could bode well for projecting him to the NFL.

Weaknesses

Routes: Patterson is a very raw route runner. He’s easily bullied and rerouted off the line, and he doesn’t run his routes with much passion, often running at three-quarters speed and tipping his change of direction without the ball in his hands. He could get away with it against lesser cornerbacks in college, but NFL corners will beat him up until he learns to run with anticipation and precision.

Concentration: He’s prone to severe lapses in concentration (see the game vs Georgia). He has a habit of not looking the ball all the way into his hands, leading to some pretty ugly drops. He also is not a consistent hands-catcher, though he has very good hands when he does. He tends to catch with his chestplate on routes over the middle, leading to double-catches and drops. One of the top goals for him at the Combine was to demonstrate better route-running and catching skills, and he failed to do that.

Experience: He has only one year at the FBS level after two years in a junior college, so jumping to the NFL will be a sharp increase in the quality of his competition. He didn’t run a full route tree at Tennessee, so there will also be a big learning curve as he is familiarized with an NFL playbook. There have already been rumors that he isn’t perceived as being very bright, and if that’s true, he’ll need to at least overcome that perception. He’s a raw player who will likely take a few years to adjust and refine his game. He’ll need to demonstrate the persistence and work ethic to overcome his inexperience and his weaknesses.

Bottom Line

Patterson is an absurdly gifted athlete. Unfortunately, the majority of his production at the JUCO and FBS levels was because of his athleticism. His otherworldly movement skills won’t set him apart nearly as much in the NFL, so to be worth a first round pick, he’ll need to convince NFL teams that he can run consistent, precise routes. He didn’t show much improvement at the Combine, so that continues to be a question mark.

He also needs to demonstrate that he has the maturity and work ethic to refine his game. Multiple reports during the Combine indicated that he was not impressing in interviews. Without knowing him personally, I can’t speak to his character, but in the interviews I’ve seen, he strikes me that he knows how gifted he is, and he expects that athleticism to carry him. If he takes that attitude into the NFL, he will fail. NFL wide receivers must be extremely intelligent, hard-working players, and if NFL teams don’t see that out of him, they’ll likely be less willing to invest a first round pick and millions of dollars.

I have a mid-second round grade on him, which is where the New York Jets drafted Stephen Hill in 2012. Patterson projects a lot more like Hill than Jones or A.J. Green, and I wouldn’t be comfortable drafting him higher than that. However, it’s very likely a team at the back end of the first round just can’t get past how gifted he is, and decides to nab him before the teams at the top of the first round get a second shot at him.