http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/wr.phpThe Minnesota Vikings are basically known for one thing in fantasy: Adrian Peterson. Sure they’re known for generally being sad in every other category besides tight end, but at least it’s something.
This year, with a new rookie quarterback on the roster and a young, talented receiver, Minnesota is looking to take a step forward in fantasy circles and in the NFL.
Teddy Bridgewater, Quarterback
It’s not a lock that Bridgewater is going to be the starting quarterback Week 1, but he’s really the only one worth talking about for fantasy purposes. Even if the Vikings elect to go with Matt Cassel as the starter in the first game, he’s not worth much in fantasy, and Bridgewater is bound to take over at some point during the season.
The thing that should entice owners most about Bridgewater is his arm strength. He has the power and accuracy to get it 30 yards down-field to Cordarrelle Patterson for huge plays, and it always helps to have Adrian Peterson in the backfield. Don’t be surprised if Bridgewater is a solid plug-in-and-play or reserve quarterback for bye weeks later in the season.
Adrian Peterson, Running Back
At this point, unless you have never watched an NFL game before, you know what you’re getting with Peterson. Sure, he’s inching closer to the fantasy football trap door that is turning 30, but in every season besides 2011, he’s had at least 1,266 yards (that includes 2,097 in 2012 and 1,760 in 2008). He’ll be used a ton, and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be one of the top three players taken overall.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Wide Receiver
Perhaps no one player’s draft stock has risen in fantasy since the Super Bowl than Patterson. Over time, owners have convinced themselves that Patterson’s ability to break huge plays will be more consistent this season. In reality, though, he’s only had two career games of more than 50 receiving yards, and one was a 141-yard game. With Norv Turner at the helm of the offense, he’ll love sending Patterson deep, and Patterson showed toward the end of last season as well that he can be involved in the running game.
As long as he gets the touches (he had three games early on in the season with just two touches) Patterson will get it done in the air and on the ground.
Greg Jennings, Wide Receiver
Most people are writing Jennings’ career off. He’s a borderline flex play, according to his average draft position, going as the 55th receiver and 165th overall, according to FantasyPros. But I’m not sold that Jennings doesn’t have anything left in the tank. Last season, with a combination of Cassel, Christian Ponder and Josh Freeman throwing to him, Jennings was targeted 106 times, the 31st most out of all receivers, according to our targeting metrics (paid subscription required).
If Bridgewater gets any playing time, the offense is going to take a step forward, which will increase Jennings’ touchdown total. He’s obviously not a WR2 candidate, or even a flex play in standard leagues, but I think he has something left in the tank for deeper leagues.
Kyle Rudolph, Tight End
In San Diego and in his one season with the Browns, Turner loved to get the tight end involved in the offense. Rudolph isn’t as nearly as athletic as Antonio Gates and Jordan Cameron, but he could be targeted a lot in the offense, especially if Bridgewater is in, who’ll want to check down often if Patterson isn’t open deep. Rudolph is only one year removed from a nine-touchdown season, but he may be going a little too high in drafts (we’ll get to that in a bit).
Biggest Fantasy Surprise: Teddy Bridgewater, Quarterback
Bridgewater had one of the strangest lead-ups to a draft that we’ve seen in a while. He went from being a No. 1 overall pick, to a borderline first-round pick, and now he’s widely considered the quarterback with the most upside out of this year’s draft. Even if Cassel starts the season (they seem to be pretty even in camp at the moment), Bridgewater will take over at some point, he’s too talented for the Vikings to not take a chance.
By that time, a mid-tier fantasy quarterback such as Jay Cutler, Tony Romo or Ben Roethlisberger could be injured or slumping. Bridgewater will certainly worth a few starts if he’s in the lineup for owners who get burned by a quarterback injury, and heading in to 2015, he’ll be one to watch.
Biggest Fantasy Disappointment: Kyle Rudolph, Tight End
FantasyPros’ ADP has Rudolph going a round later than Jordan Reed, and earlier than Zach Ertz in Philadelphia and Antonio Gates of the Chargers. The problem with taking Rudolph in the 10th round is that he’s far too touchdown reliant for his fantasy production, as opposed to Gates and Ertz, who are both far more involved in their respective offenses.
In 2012, when Rudolph scored nine touchdowns, he didn’t even break 500 yards. Last season, if he had played all 16 games, he was on pace to score six touchdowns. That still would have put him tied for eighth in touchdowns among tight ends, and he was on pace to finish behind Gates and Martellus Bennett in total fantasy points. Touchdowns are simply too hard to predict, and I’d much rather have Reed in the eighth round than Rudolph in the 10th, and Ertz and Gates should both be going higher.
How the Schedule Impacts Minnesota’s Fantasy Outlook
This mainly applies to Peterson, but the Vikings’ schedule is pretty unfavorable for fantasy purposes. A Week 9 matchup against Washington, and the Packers allowed the sixth most fantasy points to running backs last season, per our fantasy against rankings. But Detroit’s front seven is much tougher than their secondary, and Minnesota faces an early schedule against the Rams, Patriots, Saints and Falcons, and finish up with the Panthers, Jets, Lions, Dolphins and Bears.
The NFC North secondaries are favorable to Patterson and the rest of the passing game, but there will be few easy games for Peterson this season.