The Tennessee Titans clearly knew heading into this offseason that they were ready for a major change at running back. They cut ties with Chris Johnson, who went to the New York Jets, then they signed Dexter McCluster and drafted Bishop Sankey.
Sankey is the clear favorite to get the starting job in Tennessee, given that Shonn Greene is still recovering from injury and is much slower than Sankey, and that McCluster just isn’t a feature back. In fantasy, being a top back on a roster pretty much guarantees a spot as a starting running back.
In standard leagues, that would mean one of the 24 best fantasy backs in the league. Sankey easily falls into that category. But, rookie running backs generally aren’t legitimate RB1 options, and neither is Sankey.
Sure, he has RB1 upside because of the nature of running backs in today’s NFL, but he shouldn’t be taken as a top back. From the top 12 fantasy backs last season, there are locks to get back into that top tier, ex. Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy.
Johnson will fall out of the top 12 with his age, as will Ryan Mathews given his injury history and Fred Jackson with C.J. Spiller looming to take some of his touches. So Sankey is looking at a four or five-player window to sneak in to the top 12 and be a RB1 option.
But, Doug Martin and Arian Foster will both be coming back healthy, and Alfred Morris and Giovani Bernard are also favorites to be RB1 draft picks, and they’re much safer selections than Sankey. It’s not ridiculous to think a rookie could do it, but it’s pretty uncommon.
Eddie Lacy was eighth in total rushing yards last season in the league as a rookie, and Alfred Morris finished second among all rushers in his rookie season in 2012. But just look at all of the rookie running backs who didn’t rank that high.
In 2012, Trent Richardson didn’t break 1,000 yards, David Wilson hasn’t been able to say healthy, Ronnie Hillman found his way onto the Denver Broncos’ practice squad last year, Lamar Miller hasn’t been able to win the starting job in Miami and Martin missed basically all of 2013. All those backs were taken in at least the first four rounds of the 2012 draft.
Using a pick in the first three rounds to take Sankey as a RB1 just isn’t safe. His touches are really up in the air (McCluster will likely serve the Danny Woodhead role in Ken Wisenhunt’s offense and people seem to forget that Greene ran for 1,000 yards in two consecutive seasons). There are just better options to go in the first three rounds than Sankey.
But, in the fourth round of standard fantasy drafts, Sankey is a great option as a RB2 with eventual RB1 upside, especially in dynasty/keeper leagues. Although he doesn’t have Chris Johnson speed, he is much faster than Greene and is better at making decisions mid-run.
In today’s NFL with running backs, one or two guys will always get hurt and be done for the season, then someone will have a down year because they’re on a bad team. Weird stuff just happens with running backs, so Sankey is a lock to be a top-20 fantasy back with the opportunity available to him on the Titans.
Then, the RB1 upside comes in because of Greene and McCluster. Last season, Johnson ranked sixth among all running backs in total touches with Greene only appearing in 11 games and carrying the ball 77 times, according to our premium statistics (paid subscription required). If Sankey can get to the 279 touches that Johnson had last year, getting into RB1 upside territory isn’t crazy.
Sankey can catch the ball out of the backfield, and with Jake Locker it’s not like the Titans will be airing the ball out down the field. If Locker misses any time, Sankey will become the immediate safety valve for the backup, running the ball and catching. McCluster is definitely a threat to take some touches away on third down, but he has only carried the ball 152 times in four seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs and he was targeted an average of 64.8 times per season in those four years.
McCluster is a speedy guy, but he has even played in the slot before at receiver, so he won’t all of a sudden become a consistent third-down back. That’s just not his skill set, especially because he’s simply not that good of a rusher.
Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean also reported on Monday that Greene still needs to “prove his worth in camp” and although no one from the Titans has openly discussed cutting Greene, it wouldn’t be out of the question.
Even if Greene keeps his roster spot, this just shows that Greene isn’t valued as highly as some may believe he is. Sankey is the guy here, and if other backs in the league get injured and Sankey breaks 270 touches, it wouldn’t be mind-blowing to see Sankey as a top-12 fantasy back.
Still, he’s not safe enough to be drafted as a RB1, and should be waited on to draft until the fourth or fifth rounds of most drafts this summer.