The Indianapolis Colts will find themselves in a strange position when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday: They must win.
When Week 15 arrives, the Colts (7-6) are usually worrying about which players to rest for the playoffs. But if they lose Sunday, there won’t be any playoffs because the Jaguars (8-5) would clinch their first AFC South Division title.
The Colts’ chances of a wild card berth are already slim and they could even be eliminated from playoff contention by the end of the day.
Indianapolis does control its own destiny, though. If the Colts win their final three games, they win the AFC South. After Sunday, they play at Oakland and home against Tennessee.
If the Jaguars lose, their playoff hopes will be severely damaged as their best chance by far to qualify is via the AFC South title route.
The Jaguars can win if running back Maurice Jones-Drew continues his stellar season. Jones-Drew is second in the NFL in rushing with 1,278 yards, and faces the No. 29 rushing defense at 141.1 yards per game.
Jones-Drew, who has six consecutive 100-yard games, rushed for 105 yards and scored two touchdowns – one receiving – in the Jaguars’ 31-28 victory over the Colts in Week 4.
If the Jaguars’ running game succeeds – it is No. 2 in the NFL at 157.8 yards per game – that means Peyton Manning is on the bench, where he can’t add to his Hall of Fame credentials.
It is hard to believe a team led by Manning is on the verge of missing the playoffs, but injuries have slowed his offense all season. Manning, though, has contributed with some uncharacteristic mistakes.
Manning leads the NFL with 4,028 yards, but has 15 interceptions, tied for fifth with Donovan McNabb, Matt Hasselbeck and Carson Palmer, quarterbacks usually not in the same sentence with Manning.
Four of his interceptions were returned for touchdowns in losses to the Cowboys and Chargers in Weeks 12 and 13.
Running back Joseph Addai has missed seven games with a shoulder injury and is questionable to play. Wide receiver Austin Collie is probable to play after missing five games because of concussions.
All-Pro wide receiver Reggie Wayne has 94 catches for 1,213 yards – both second in the NFL to Atlanta’s Roddy White – and five touchdowns as Manning’s go-to guy.
Pierre Garcon has a career-high 52 catches, while tight end Jacob Tamme (46 receptions) has filled in admirably for Dallas Clark, who is out for the season with a hand injury.
The Colts’ running game has been non-existent at 79.5 yards per game, last in the NFL.
Jaguars quarterback David Garrard has completed 65.5 percent of his passes this season, and has five touchdowns and one interception in his last two games against the Colts.
The Colts, who have won six of the eight AFC South titles, have not been swept by a division foe since the Tennessee Titans did it in 2002. The Titans won the other two division titles – in 2002 and 2008.