The Rundown
In a move that quickly followed a laughable "rumor" making the rounds of Twitter, the New Jersey Devils have seriously upgraded their inept offense by acquiring left winger Taylor Hall. In return, the Edmonton Oilers will pick up defenseman Adam Larsson, who will be another piece of the puzzle to building an NHL caliber blueline in Edmonton.
As the season wraps up its fiscal year and teams become highly active making roster moves, it's always hard to distinguish fact from fiction in the NHL during this time of year. In what seemed like yet another "sources say" smoke show, word was that the Oilers would look to flip Hall if they landed free agent Milan Lucic, a fellow left winger that would certainly cost both term and dollars to acquire. The rationale was that flipping Hall for defensive help would be a lateral move from an offensive standpoint, and a major upgrade for a terrible blueline.
There is fault in that logic, of course, as Lucic is nowhere near the caliber play Hall is. Additionally, Hall is locked up at a similar rate to what Lucic is expected to fetch ($6M) until 2020, while Lucic will likely sign a contract that takes him into at least 2021. It's worth noting that Lucic is 28 years old while Hall is 24, and Lucic plays a style of game that doesn't bode well for his prospects of playing at a high level. It would seem the prudent move would be to retain Hall and look to upgrade the blueline via free agency (Jason Demers is available, for example) and not vice-versa.
All of that is based on the assumption that Lucic even signs with Edmonton, which is certainly not a given.
With the 'why' now out of the way, we can examine the deal itself. Adam Larsson is a fellow lottery pick (4th overall in 2011) and comes at reasonable $4.2M cap hit through 2021. The deal Larsson signed last year was predicated on his continued development into a blueline stud. He found himself in the doghouse often with former Devils coach Peter DeBoer, but his game improved last year as he saw a healthy amount of time on ice against tough competition.
Larsson is still on the road to realizing his potential, whereas Taylor Hall has established himself as a premier winger in the NHL. He's had some injury issues -- last season was his first 82 game season in his six year career -- but he's put up 132 goals and 328 points in 382 career games. In a league that puts a premium on scoring, a 24 year old winger that has put up .86 points per game is certainly nothing to scoff at.
Fantasy Fallout
It will be a whole new world for Taylor Hall, as the offensive chesspieces in New Jersey are... well, there are a lot more pawns than bishops compared to Edmonton. Hall will miss playing with talented centers like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Connor McDavid, but he should still be considered a threat for 30+ goals, especially if he draws on a line with Adam Henrique. His assists might drop off, however, as the Devils had the worst offense in the league last year (and have been basement dwellers for some time). Whoever centers Hall in New Jersey gets an immediate bump up. It's a bit more mixed for his former teammates in Edmonton though -- there's no reason to fade McDavid due to his elite talent level, while Nugent-Hopkins could find points a bit harder to come by.
Adam Larsson will be a liability in plus/minus leagues and on FanDuel, but playing with more talented forwards should help his offensive game grow. He's shown the ability to get the puck forward, though he will most likely eat up some difficult minutes in the tougher Western Conference. He's a name to tuck away for late round consideration in season long leagues and as a punt option in DFS, especially considering he should see some power play time. Cam Talbot will also get a bump with some more help in front of him.
Way Too Early Trade Judgment
The rationale behind the move from both team's point of view is obvious, as each team addressed a significant weakness. However, it's hard to not think that Peter Chiarelli, who had previously traded Phil Kessel and Tyler Seguin as GM of the Bruins, got short-changed here. If he wanted a simple one-for-one swap, he could have undoubtedly acquired a player further along the growth curve -- and one with a higher ceiling.
New Jersey gets an extremely talented winger in his prime with a great cap situation for the mid-term, which will help to build up poor numbers in the goal department and the box office. The New Jersey Devils may be culturally advancing from the ultra-defensive systems of their glory days, but defense is still in this team's DNA. That is to say, they will always have something of a system in place that emphasizes blueline play, somewhat limiting the sting of trading a blueline talent trending up.
Edmonton will have to hope that Larsson continues to turn in to the player he was projected to be in his draft scouting report. While he's not an immediate game changer, he is certainly a step in the right direction for the Oilers in upgrading a porous defense.
The Devils win this trade as they made a franchise changing deal, and they didn't come close to paying retail to do so.