The Edmonton Oilers engaged in phase two of their strategic plan this off-season, signing Milan Lucic to a seven year, $42M deal after trading Taylor Hall to the Devils yesterday:
When the rumors began swirling that Hall was on the block, the main driver behind General Manager Peter Chiarelli's rationale for moving the talented Hall was his replacement on the wing with Lucic. Chiarelli and Lucic are familiar with one another from their days spent in the Bruins organization.
Lucic is no slouch, but his best days appear to be behind him already. The physical forward can still find twine, but the 28 year old winger never developed into "the next Cam Neely" as it seemed he would early in Boston. Physical style games don't tend to age well in the NHL, so the term given to Lucic is certainly worrisome for Edmonton. It's hard to envision this contract being considered favorable in just a few years.
In the short term, Lucic will jump right in to the Edmonton top six and play with a talented center in Connor McDavid or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. That should help keep Lucic from falling short of 20 goals, but nobody should expect Lucic to challenge for a scoring title. After all, Lucic has played on lines with Patrice Bergeron and Anze Kopitar over the last two years, resulting in goal totals of 18 and 20, respectively.
NHL front offices believing that their team, and specifically their forward group, need to "big" and "physical" is a holdover from a different era in the league. Teams like the Blackhawks, Penguins, and Kings have recently found success by utilizing a strong puck possession game, and building forward groups that put more emphasis on puck control rather than hitting and physicality. Peter Chiarelli no doubt is looking to rekindle the magic of the Bruins from 2009-2013, but the game has changed and these Oilers are not those Bruins.
Was spurning top-end young talent that focuses on speed for a "gritty" forward a smart move from Edmonton? It's hard to believe that it is, especially when factoring in the term given to Lucic, a player that is almost assuredly going to fail to reach his contract's value within a few years.
Fantasy Slant
Lucic should be able to maintain relevancy as an early middle round draft pick, as his floor should be around 20 goals and 25 assists. He also throws his body around and should rack up 70+ penalty minutes, and will likely plant himself in front of the net on a power play unit loaded with young talent. However, plus/minus will be a concern, and the potential for injury due to his style of play should be factored in to his draft slot. In DFS games, he is someone that will likely be a discounted way to gain exposure to a dangerous Oilers offense, so he should definitely be a name to file away on a night to night basis.