Roger Federer, according to a mass email sent out by ATP World Tour Fantasy, "has withdrawn from the BNP Paribas Masters and has been replaced by lucky loser Victor Hanescu." Federer withdraws from the event following a busy week in Basel that saw him lose to Juan Martin del Potro in the tournament's final. The World No. 1's withdrawal from the event will likely benefit several players besides Hanescu.
Kei Nishikori may be one of those players as the Japanese star, a recent winner from ATP Tokyo, could have met Federer in the third round had he not withdrawn. Tomas Berdych was also in Federer's quarter and the Czech player now has to like his draw to the tournament's semifinals a whole lot better. Additionally Andy Murray, a player who shared a semi with Federer, now has a softer draw to the final and the title.
Murray and Novak Djokovic are the tournament's clear favorites and there is not much between them when one looks at the betting odds. Djokovic has been priced with the shortest odds to win the Paris title at 5/4 (+125; bet365) while Murray is priced at 15/8 (+187; bet365). The two players recently met in the final of the Shanghai Masters in what was a thrilling match that saw the Scot squander numerous championship points before ultimately losing to the Serb.
At time of writing, del Potro had not withdrawn from the tournament and the Argentine, should he stay in the draw, would benefit from a bye in the first round. He will need that bye in order to get in some rest following back-to-back titles in Vienna and Basel from the previous two weeks. He has been the most active player on tour recently and although he is playing exceptionally well right now, he could be set up for a fatigue induced loss to weaker competition. Del Potro's status as fourth favorite to win the Paris Masters (bet365) overrates him.
Federer remains on top of the ATP World Tour rankings as of the October 28th, 2012 rankings. However that will change on November 5th, 2012 since Federer will lose a whopping 3000 ranking points on that date, the dropoff date for his ranking points associated with his titles at ATP Basel 2011, the 2011 Paris Masters and the 2011 ATP World Tour Finals. Djokovic does not have to do a thing to regain top spot next Monday: he will be the World No. 1 even if he falls in his first match in Paris.
The Paris Masters is the final event of the season with the exception of the ATP World Tour Finals. Richard Gasquet, Nicolas Almagro, Juan Monaco, Milos Raonic, John Isner, Marin Cilic, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Stanislas Wawrinka are the players still within striking range of Janko Tipsarevic, the current World No. 9 and occupier of the last spot in the World Tour Finals. However none of those players are expected to challenge for the title in Paris and consequently the London event looks as though it will feature players ranked first to ninth, with Rafael Nadal out due to injury. The main draw for the Paris Masters starts on Monday with many expecting a Djokovic vs. Murray final.